The 2022 US Open is set to take place at the The Country Club of Brookline in Massachusetts this week, with Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas the betting favorites with most sportsbooks.
McIlroy and Thomas were front and center of the golf conversation this past Sunday, duking it out (alongside Tony Finau) on an epic Sunday at the Canadian Open.
Now, if you're looking to bet on the golf this week, you've come to the right place, with our predictive analytics model simulating this week's US Open 1000s of times to determine where the value lies in betting the outright winner, Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 finishes.
As you can see below, our model is currently liking McIlroy more of the two, with the in-form Thomas right behind him as the second most likely winner.
Player Name | Win Probability | DraftKings Odds |
Rory McIlroy | 8.4% | +1000 |
Justin Thomas | 7.7% | +1100 |
Jon Rahm | 5.6% | +1200 |
Scottie Scheffler | 5.4% | +1400 |
Sam Burns | 4.1% | +2800 |
Cameron Smith | 4.1% | +2200 |
Patrick Cantlay | 3.8% | +2000 |
Shane Lowry | 3.6% | +3500 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick | 3.0% | +3000 |
Xander Schauffele | 2.7% | +1600 |
For those of you who don't have an account with DraftKings Sportsbook yet, they're offering you the perfect way in with $100 of free bets (4x $25) coming your way if you sign up and deposit just $25 today.
Here, we're going to look at how to use your initial $25 deposit, and the $100 in bonus bets that will come alongside it, in a 5-bet strategy!
As above, Rory and JT come into this week in hot form, having finished first and third at last week's Canadian Open.
So with that in mind, we're opting to use our initial $25 bet on EITHER one of them to win, which you can find in the 'tournament props' section on the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
With DimersBOT projecting these two as the most likely winners this week, this seems the smartest way to bet our initial deposit this week.
Our US Open value bet comes in the form of Sam Burns, who has been one of the most consistent PGA golfers this season, winning three times already.
The Dimers' golf model projects Sam Burns as a 4.1% chance of winning the US Open, which would equate to fair odds of around +2300.
So, this makes the +2800 on offer with DK very tasty, with Burns the fifth most likely guy to come out on top this Sunday.
P.S. Burns finished 4th at the Canadian Open last week and won his last event before that!
Another man that our model is once again loving is Irishman Shane Lowry to finish Top-10 at the US Open.
Lowry has made nine consecutive cuts coming into this week, with a T3 at the Masters and T23 at the PGA Championship included in that run.
He's also finished in the Top-10 in four of his last six starts and is currently ranked as the 8th best golfer in the world on our PGA Tour Rankings.
Canadian Corey Conners is another guy who comes into US Open week in solid form, having finished 6th at his home country's open this past weekend.
Along with that impressive showing at the Canadian Open, Conners' other best week this season was at the Masters where he finished in T3, showing that like Lowry, he can very much compete in the majors.
There's value on Corey Conners to finish Top-10 or to win this week, but our official play here is for him to finish in the Top-20, with our model ranking him as the 16th most likely winner in the field.
Lastly we're throwing a dart, with Marc Leishman's odds to win the US Open outright simply too good to ignore this week.
Now, usually this would be a suggested pizza money play, but with DraftKings Sportsbook offering free $25 bets, why not?!
The 38-year-old Australian hasn't been as consistent as he would like this season, but he has always geared himself up for the majors.
Plus, Leishman is 12th in strokes gained: putting in 2021-22 which should play a very important role for those looking to contend this week.
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2022 US Open golf odds and probabilities correct at the time of publishing.