The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers team will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.
Let's a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the Indianapolis Colts in the 2022 NFL season.
Head Coach Frank Reich’s team just missed the playoffs last year, but he’s hoping a pair of reinforcements who have earned high accolades will help elevate Indianapolis to the next level.
Former AP Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore arrives to bolster a secondary that gave up the second-most touchdowns in 2021. Gilmore is entering his age-32 season but older cornerbacks with savvy have typically thrived in new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s defense.
On the other side of the ball, Indy has swapped out mistake-prone quarterback Carson Wentz with 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan. Ryan should bring an air of competence to the position, but will have to do so with a depleted complement of targets. Hilton and Pascal have walked in free agency, while tight end Jack Doyle has retired.
The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars ought to show signs of improvement over a dismal 2021, but the AFC is a gauntlet of difficult match-ups. In a passing league, the Colts will have to face the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
But in an effort to keep up with the heavyweights of the NFL, the Colts have upgraded at the most important position on offense while making moves to protect against the pass on defense — signing Gilmore, trading for Yannick Ngakoue to pair with Kwity Paye on the line, and drafting safety Nick Cross.
All this adds up to Indianapolis looking like a solid contender for an AFC South title, and a 1-2 win improvement on 2021’s record.
PICK: Over 9.5 wins
DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Colts averaged 10.09 wins per year. That means the Over is a good play and our data scientists also give Indianapolis a 56.3% chance of winning the division. This was already a good football team last year, but Ryan is going to take things to another level.
After getting squeezed out of Atlanta, Matty Ice joins a Colts team that had set the bar low for quarterback performance last year.
This will be a great test for the veteran to prove he can still elevate an offense. Mo Alie-Cox is a beast of a target at tight end, but there’s incredibly limited experience behind top wideouts Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell.
Oddsmakers have placed Indianapolis in the middle of the pack in the AFC, giving the Colts a decent — but not great — chance to become Super Bowl champions.
If everything goes right for Indianapolis from a health standpoint, the Colts could find themselves dancing under confetti in Glendale next February. But a lot of things would need to break right for Indianapolis to actually have a chance. Still, there's undoubtedly some value here.
PICK: The DimersBOT gives the Colts a 3.8% chance of winning Super Bowl 57. That's the ninth-best of anybody in the league in our model. So, while it's not likely, it's not exactly crazy to think it'll happen. It might be worth a small dart throw.