Predictive Analytics Model and Expert Golf Picks To Win 2022 BMW Championship

After hitting two winners in the last four weeks, we're looking to steer you in the right direction in this week's BMW Championship at Wilmington Country Club in New Castle County, Delaware. The tournament begins on Thursday, August 18th, 2022 and will run until Sunday, August 21st, and this is going to be some must-see action for golf fans and avid sports bettors. 

Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win this event heading into Thursday, but he'll be pushed by some of the best golfers on the planet — including guys like Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau and many more. With that said, make sure you keep reading for our favorite bets of the weekend. That includes one unlikely play that our model loves. 

Here, we look at some of the best bets ahead of this week's PGA event.

Predictive Analytics Model and Expert Picks To Win 2022 BMW Championship

2022 BMW Championship Odds And Probabilities

2022 BMW Championship Best Bet to Win

Our model hasn't spotted any significant edges in the outright market, but we've picked winners without the DimersBOT before and we can certainly do it again! When searching for who stands out amongst the top golfers in the world, that guy is none other than Xander Schauffele. 

Schauffele is one of the most well-rounded players on the PGA Tour, and he has the most favorable odds (+2000) of anybody that our model believes has at least a 5.0% chance of winning. This course is supposed to play extremely long and it's going to favor players that can avoid making big mistakes. That's huge for a guy like Schauffele, as he has a nice combination of distance and accuracy off the tee — which is necessary on a course that will require players to hit lengthy shots. He's also extremely reliable with his irons and putter. 

You might be tempted to go with one of the bigger names on tour, like McIlroy, or somebody with a better payout, but Schauffele's steadiness is exactly what you need to win at this golf course. He's the star you'll want to back this week. 

2022 BMW Championship Value Pick To Win

While his odds aren't that much longer than Schauffele's, our favorite value play of the week is Sungjae Im at +2500. 

We just spoke about what is required to win at this golf course and a lot of that boils down to distance and accuracy off the tee, plus the ability to hit good approach shots. Well, Im is 30th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy this season, third in ball striking off the tee and ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green. He's going to be able to help himself a lot with his ability to let the big dog eat.

Im is also better with his irons than you would think based on the statistics this year. If he gets hot with his putter, he can absolutely win this tournament. 

2022 BMW Championship Computer Pick - DimersBOT Best Bet of the Weekend

While our model didn't have anybody that stood out to win this thing outright, it does love Alex Noren to finish in the Top 20 at +330. 

Noren withdrew from the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, but the DimersBOT gives him a 32.0% chance of finishing in the Top 20 here.

Noren hasn't shown as much consistency as you'd like this season — he has missed a lot of cuts and has also had to withdraw from events — but he does have three Top 10 finishes and seven Top 20 finishes in tournaments he has played this year. And as a golfer that was formerly ranked eighth in the Official World Golf Rankings, it's clear he has the ability to perform at a high level at this golf course.

Noren also has to finish in at least sixth in order to have a shot at playing in the Tour Championship, so the motivation will definitely be there.  

Last 10 BMW Championship Winners

• 2021: Patrick Cantlay
• 2020: Jon Rham
• 2019: Justin Thomas
• 2018: Keegan Bradley
• 2017: Marc Leishman
• 2016: Dustin Johnson
• 2015: Jason Day
• 2014: Billy Horschel
• 2013: Zach Johnson
• 2012: Rory McIlroy

2022 BMW Championship odds and probabilities correct at the time of publishing.